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What Bookies Need To Know About Overs & Unders

Posted on by Donald Dunbar in Sports News

NFLOne of the easiest wagers to make is on the Over and Under for any given match.  Simply do the homework, make your guess and place your bet. But with scoring in the NFL going up every season, that guess is getting harder and harder to calculate.

Last year NFL games averaged 46.8 points per game and the Over went 138-127 more than 52% of the time. With the new fast paced offences led by the Eagles under new head coach Chip Kelly, we can look for that figure to continue to rise.  Bettors who stuck with betting the Over on games featuring teams that utilize the fast paced offence went somewhere in the neighborhood of 92-67-1, which translates to around 58% wins.

The top ten fastest teams in the NFL last year were the Eagles, the Bills, the Patriots, the Broncos, the Browns, the Jaguars, the Ravens, the Redskins, the Vikings and the Dolphins. Kelly’s Eagles were the quickest by running a play every 23.38 seconds while Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers won the prize for the slowest at 29.93.

Only six and a half seconds difference per play can translate into more plays and more points for the faster teams and push up the Over even more. Add that to the fact that the NFL features more and more passing plays with each new season, and the totals just keep going up and up.

In fact since 2008 the number of pass attempts by each team has risen from 32.8 up to 35.4. That comes out to over 70 passing attempts in one football game. As the passing attacks get better, the scores will continue to rise.

Back in 2009 the totals for NFL games were averaging 43 points per game.  By 2013 those totals were approaching 47 points per game. Also keep in mind that the no-huddle offence is coming into play more and more these days and that also translates into more plays, which means more points.

In 2013, the top paying Over teams were the Bears, the Vikings, the Broncos, the Bengals and the Bills while Under bettors cashed in on the Panthers, the Saints, the Seahawks, the Giants, the Chiefs and the Chargers.

But wait, the NFL has passed a new rule that should slow down the scoring a bit.  The game clock will no longer stop when the quarterback is sacked which will mean more time off the clock and fewer points on the board.

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